Germany: Is the Mood Turning to Arms Deliveries in the Ukraine War?
No negotiations – no more weapons – no more escalation: It is becoming increasingly clear that Western Ukraine policy can be summed up in this succinct formula. The focus is on the delivery of heavy weapons for a Ukrainian offensive to regain lost territories.
Germany, too, is increasingly becoming a part of the war, especially with the delivery of tank howitzers now decided. But the more the contours of this extremely risky replacement strategy become clearer, the more the state of mind of the population changes, despite constant media mobilization.
It is worth taking a look back: at the end of March 2022, the media was full of reports that Ukraine and Russia were close to finding a negotiated solution to end the war. At Editorial Network Germany it was said:
The talks could end Russia’s war on Ukraine sooner than observers thought. […] As a result, there is a first draft of the ceasefire document in which some of Russia’s demands are missing. […] Russia [soll] in the document to no longer adhere to its demands to “denazify” and “demilitarize” Ukraine. […]
Ukraine [soll] offered in the talks […]to accept negotiations on the future of Crimea for a period of up to 15 years. […] Furthermore, Ukraine would be ready to accept a neutral status if there are security guarantees from various states in the event of a new Russian attack – including China.
Editorial Network Germany
Even EU membership seems to have been discussed and accepted by Russia. Shortly after the conclusion of the Istanbul negotiations, Moscow negotiator Vladimir Medinsky reportedly said: “The Russian Federation has no objection to Ukraine’s efforts to join the European Union.”
What exactly happened, if anything, will likely not be known for many years. In any case, immediately after the rapprochement in the negotiations, the skeptical voices of Western heads of government, namely Boris Johnson and Joseph Biden, multiplied. Already on April 5, 2022 reported the Washington Post on the fact that within the NA the continuation of the war is currently preferred to a negotiated solution (see: Heavy weapons for Ukraine: “Get out of the logic of escalation”).
On April 7, 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the Ukrainian side had made changes to the negotiating documents that would make an agreement more difficult. In early May 2022, Lavrov again repeated this statement:
We accepted the talks at the request of Volodymyr Zelenskyy and they started to gain momentum. In March, agreements based on Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s public statements were reached at a negotiation meeting in Istanbul. He said Ukraine was ready to become a neutral, non-aligned and non-nuclear country if it received security guarantees.
We were ready to work on this basis, provided that the agreement provided that security guarantees would not apply to Crimea and Donbass, as the Ukrainians themselves suggested. Immediately after this proposal, which they signed and handed over to us, they changed their position.
In this context, the evidence clearly indicates that the West (or at least the United States and a number of other allies) currently has no interest in a negotiated solution – and has also signaled this to Ukraine. . Instead, the opportunity that now presents itself should be used to weaken Russia as much as possible.
Incidentally, after his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the end of April 2022, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin openly identified this as a key US objective.
This goal will be achieved by negotiating only when Russian troops have been completely expelled militarily from Ukraine – that is, only then have they been defeated in fact. At the end of April, for example, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss made the following statement in a speech titled “Geopolitics is back,” which the British government also provided with a German translation:
We must significantly increase our support for Ukraine. […] The war in Ukraine is our war – it is the war of all of us, because the victory of Ukraine is a strategic necessity for all of us. Heavy weapons, tanks, planes – we dig deep into our arsenals, increasing production. All this is necessary. […] We will do even more to drive Russia out of all of Ukraine, even faster.
The “logic” of heavy weapons
The delivery of heavy weapons, now decided by more and more Western states, including Germany, is part of Western strategy by proxy. Although previous Ukrainian weaponry had been “adapted” to make the Russian advance more difficult, it was largely unsuited to retaking lost areas. This requires heavy equipment, which is now being delivered in bulk to Ukraine – along with the unmistakable demand to go on the offensive.
However, this is nothing more than a recipe for a long and catastrophic proxy war, as historian Jörg Baberowski has unequivocally explained, who for years stood out with his rather critical tone for Putin :
I doubt whether it is possible to end the conflict by delivering heavy military equipment to Ukraine. Putin won’t admit defeat because he can’t afford to lose. The consequences of a long war of destruction and annihilation will be devastating for Russia and Ukraine. […] The key now is to find a neutral mediator to broker a mutually beneficial peace. There can be no other solution if we want to avoid a long war of attrition.
Nevertheless – or probably because of it – the delivery of heavy weapons continues to accelerate. The United States alone is said to have delivered $3.7 billion worth of arms to Ukraine since the war began – but that’s nothing compared to what US President Joseph Biden recently said. asked in addition to the Congress:
The US government is arming Ukraine on a large scale to support the country in the war against Russia. Biden had […] announced that it would ask Congress to approve an additional $33 billion (€31.4 billion) for this purpose. 20 billion of this amount should be used for military aid.