Prices have recovered slightly: the DAX remains at risk

market report

Status: 05/03/2022 12:29

The stock market environment remains extremely difficult. Nevertheless, prices were able to recover at midday. A major stress test is taking place tomorrow.

At noon, the DAX is struggling with the round bar of 14,000 points. The increase is currently 0.3%. US specs were positive: In a final push, the Dow climbed into the positive zone and closed 0.3% higher. Nasdaq technology stocks recovered 1.6%. There was no trading in Tokyo and Shanghai today due to public holidays.

According to Martin Utschneider of the bank Donner & Reuschel, the main German index is still counted: “The tendency to recession remains the dominant economic problem.” The DAX’s downward trend that began at the start of the year has not changed. “For noticeable and lasting relief, the DAX should break above the 14,980 mark,” the analyst said. For a better perspective, the index should catch up close to 1000 points.

All eyes on the Fed

The two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee begins today, the results of which will be released tomorrow evening. A significant increase in interest rates of half a percentage point is considered agreed between market participants. Investors have been speculating for weeks about the size and pace of upcoming rate hikes. In view of the struggling global economy, the subject is particularly explosive. However, stock markets are often grateful for clarity. In the bond market, the yield on ten-year Bunds rose to around 1% in the morning.

Stefan Wolff, HR, with scholarship information

Tagesschau 12:00 p.m., May 3, 2022

Producer prices are rising at record speed

Inflationary pressures, meanwhile, remain significant. Eurozone manufacturers’ prices rose at an unprecedented pace in March due to soaring costs in the energy sector. Producer prices in industry rose by 36.8% compared to the same month last year, according to the statistics office Eurostat. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a slightly lower rise. In February, the increase was still 31.5% – this was also a record increase.

War in Ukraine slows down machine builders

In March, for the first time since the start of 2021, German machine builders received fewer orders than a year ago. Incoming orders fell four percent. “Lack of orders or even order cancellations from Russia and Ukraine are likely to have driven this decline, along with a generally greater reluctance to buy from unstable investors,” Ralph Wiechers explained. , Chief Economist of the industry association VDMA. In addition, there would be supply chain issues, which are increasing again, and the high comparative value in March 2021.

The euro tries to stabilize

The Euro is holding above the $1.05 mark. Current labor market data from Germany and the Eurozone is somewhat supportive. However, the five-year low marked last week remains close. Interest rate expectations for the United States continue to support the dollar and weigh on the common currency.

China curbs oil prices

Confinements in China, once again reinforced, are also clouding the economic outlook and are affecting the commodity markets in particular. North Sea Brent oil drops slightly at midday. More recently, 21 million people were isolated in Beijing and the port of Shanghai was completely closed.

Deutsche Post still on the rise

Encouraging data comes from Deutsche Post. The DAX Group remains on a growth course even after the record year 2021. From January to March, sales rose 19.8% to 22.6 billion euros, the Post said in the morning. Operating profit (EBIT) increased from 1.9 to 2.2 billion euros. The group confirmed its targets for 2022. The boom in online commerce and the recovery in global trade had taken Deutsche Post from record to record in the past. Although the parcel activity slowed down, the express and freight activity was able to develop.

Disappointed covestro

The weakest DAX stock is Covestro through midday. Rising costs and the corona lockdown in China thwarted the plastics maker’s plans for the year. For 2022, Covestro now expects operating profit (Ebitda) of between 2.0 and 2.5 billion euros. Until now, the group expected a drop in operating profit of between 2.5 and 3.0 (previous year: 3.1) billion euros. Analysts recently expected an average of 2.7 billion euros. In the first quarter, however, Covestro was able to significantly increase its sales from 3.3 to 4.68 billion euros. Net profit stood at 416 million euros, after 393 million in the first quarter of 2021.

Dürr Earnings Warning

Dürr also issued a profit warning last night. The Swabian manufacturer of MDAX plants expects supply chain problems by the end of the year and lowers its forecast. For 2022, the Management Board now expects an EBIT margin (operating result compared to sales) before exceptional items of 5.0 to 6.5% instead of the 6.5 to 7.5% previously targeted. In 2021, the margin was 5.6%, in the first quarter of 2022 it was 4.9%, as announced by the manufacturer of paint systems for the automotive industry. In the second quarter, the shutdowns in China would affect sales and profits.

Uniper figures distorted by change in activity

Uniper had a lackluster start to the year. Because the MDAX group had decided to initially leave the gas sold in advance in storage. Instead, Uniper bought gas on the market and delivered it. The group calculated that the price of gas would rise again in the second and third quarters. According to the final figures, the adjusted loss before interest and tax (EBIT) in the first quarter was 829 million euros, after a gain of 731 million euros. The net result was a little less than just over 3.1 billion euros. In the same quarter of the previous year, the group had earned 842 million euros. CFO Tiina Tuomela again stressed that this is a change in revenue and not a failure. Accordingly, management can confirm the forecast for the current year. Since the beginning of March, it was clear that the supplier had to completely cancel the loan for the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline. This effect also occurred in the first trimester.

Pfeiffer Vacuum experiences double-digit growth

After strong growth in the first quarter, vacuum pump manufacturer Pfeiffer Vacuum maintains its annual targets. In the first quarter, sales climbed nearly 13% to 216 million euros, exceeding 200 million euros for the first time. Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) rose nearly 39% to 31.3 million euros, bringing the margin to 14.5% – a year earlier the figure was 11.8% . “Demand for our products and services globally remained at an all-time high,” CEO Britta Giesen said. Strained supply chains remained “the biggest challenge”.

Stellantis buys carsharing from BMW and Mercedes

BMW and Mercedes-Benz are selling their joint car-sharing subsidiary Share Now to the Franco-Italian automotive group Stellantis. It has been agreed not to disclose the purchase price. BMW and Mercedes-Benz now want to expand their joint electric car charging service Charge Now and mobility app Free Now, the German companies said. These are two core business sectors with strong growth potential.

BP with a billion losses despite operational success

BP gained much more than expected due to high oil prices. Adjusted for special effects, the British oil company earned US$6.25 billion in the first quarter. This is more than twice as much as the previous year. Due to the depreciation of its stake in the Russian oil company Rosneft and the withdrawal of the Russian activity, the net result was a loss of 20.4 billion dollars after a profit of 4.7 billion the previous year. As in the previous quarter, BP intends to pay a dividend of 5.46 US cents per share.

Scout24 reports increased sales

After the biggest increase in quarterly sales in years, the online real estate market Scout24 (Immoscout24) is a little more optimistic for the current year. The Management Board is convinced of its new strategy of focusing more on transactional products. In the first quarter, the company MDAX achieved a turnover of nearly 108 million euros, or about 15% more. Operating profit (Ebitda) increased by 6.5% to 58.6 million euros. After taxes, on the other hand, Scout24 earned almost 18% less than a year ago, or 20 million euros. This is explained by weaker results in investments.

Speculative buying pushes Adler shares higher

In the SDAX, Adler Group shares rallied strongly after prices fell yesterday following a refusal to certify annual figures. During an exchange with analysts, the company in difficulty wanted to take stock of its real estate transactions today. A trader has warned that the stock still carries major risks.

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